Regional-scale climate-variability synchrony of cholera epidemics in West Africa

BACKGROUND: The relationship between cholera and climate was explored in Africa, the continent with the most reported cases, by analyzing monthly 20-year cholera time series for five coastal adjoining West African countries: Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Nigeria. METHODS: We used wavelet analyses and derived methods because these are useful mathematical tools to provide information on the evolution of the periodic component over time and allow quantification of non-stationary associations between time series. RESULTS: The temporal variability of cholera incidence exhibits an interannual component, and a significant synchrony in cholera epidemics is highlighted at the end of the 1980's. This observed synchrony across countries, even if transient through time, is also coherent with both the local variability of rainfall and the global climate variability quantified by the Indian Oscillation Index. CONCLUSION: Results of this study suggest that large and regional scale climate variability influence both the temporal dynamics and the spatial synchrony of cholera epidemics in human populations in the Gulf of Guinea, as has been described for two other tropical regions of the world, western South America and Bangladesh

A Mathematical Approach Lights up The Way to End Cholera Transmission

Killed, oral cholera vaccines have proven safe and effective, and several large-scale mass cholera vaccination efforts have demonstrated the feasibility of widespread deployment. This study uses a mathematical model of cholera transmission in Bangladesh to examine the effectiveness of potential vaccination strategies.We developed an age-structured mathematical model of cholera transmission and calibrated it to reproduce the dynamics of cholera in Matlab, Bangladesh. We used the model to predict the effectiveness of different cholera vaccination strategies over a period of 20 years. We explored vaccination programs that targeted one of three increasingly focused age groups (the entire vaccine-eligible population of age one year and older, children of ages 1 to 14 years, or preschoolers of ages 1 to 4 years) and that could occur either as campaigns recurring every five years or as continuous ongoing vaccination efforts. Our modeling results suggest that vaccinating 70% of the population would avert 90% of cholera cases in the first year but that campaign and continuous vaccination strategies differ in effectiveness over 20 years. Maintaining 70% coverage of the population would be sufficient to prevent sustained transmission of endemic cholera in Matlab, while vaccinating periodically every five years is less effective. Selectively vaccinating children 1-14 years old would prevent the most cholera cases per vaccine administered in both campaign and continuous strategies.We conclude that continuous mass vaccination would be more effective against endemic cholera than periodic campaigns. Vaccinating children averts more cases per dose than vaccinating all age groups, although vaccinating only children is unlikely to control endemic cholera in Bangladesh. Careful consideration must be made before generalizing these results to other regions

Analysis of Effects of Meteorological Factors on Dengue Incidence in Sri Lanka Using Time Series Data

In tropical and subtropical regions of eastern and South-eastern Asia, dengue fever (DF) and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) outbreaks occur frequently. Previous studies indicate an association between meteorological variables and dengue incidence using time series analyses. The impacts of meteorological changes can affect dengue outbreak. However, difficulties in collecting detailed time series data in developing countries have led to common use of monthly data in most previous studies. In addition, time series analyses are often limited to one area because of the difficulty in collecting meteorological and dengue incidence data in multiple areas. To gain better understanding, we examined the effects of meteorological factors on dengue incidence in three geographically distinct areas (Ratnapura, Colombo, and Anuradhapura) of Sri Lanka by time series analysis of weekly data. The weekly average maximum temperature and total rainfall and the total number of dengue cases from 2005 to 2011 (7 years) were used as time series data in this study. Subsequently, time series analyses were performed on the basis of ordinary least squares regression analysis followed by the vector autoregressive model (VAR). In conclusion, weekly average maximum temperatures and the weekly total rainfall did not significantly affect dengue incidence in three geographically different areas of Sri Lanka. However, the weekly total rainfall slightly influenced dengue incidence in the cities of Colombo and Anuradhapura

Inactivation and sub-lethal injury of salmonella typhi, salmonella typhimurium and vibrio cholerae in copper water storage vessels

Background: This study provides information on the antibacterial effect of copper against the water-borne pathogens Salmonella Typhi, Salmonella Typhimurium and Vibrio cholerae. Methods: Suspensions of each pathogen were kept in water within a traditional copper vessel at 30°C for 24 h. Samples were withdrawn, diluted and plated onto suitable growth media. Conventional enumeration of healthy (uninjured) bacteria was carried out using standard aerobic incubation conditions. Additionally, reactive oxygen species-neutralised (ROS-n) conditions were achieved by adding the peroxide scavenger sodium pyruvate to the medium with anaerobic incubation, to enumerate uninjured (ROS-insensitive) and injured (ROS-sensitive) bacteria. Differences between log-transformed means of conventional (aerobic) and ROS-n counts were statistically evaluated using t tests. Results: Overall, all three pathogens were inactivated by storage in copper vessels for 24 h. However, for shorter-term incubation (4-12 h), higher counts were observed under ROS-n conditions than under aerobic conditions, which demonstrate the presence of substantial numbers of sub-lethally injured cells prior to their complete inactivation. Conclusions: The present study has for the first time confirmed that these bacterial pathogens are inactivated by storage in a copper vessel within 24 h. However, it has also demonstrated that it is necessary to account for short-term sub-lethal injury, manifest as ROS-sensitivity, in order to more fully understand the process. This has important practical implications in terms of the time required to store water within a copper vessel to completely inactivate these bacteria and thereby remove the risk of water-borne disease transmission by this route

Climate Change and the Geographic Distribution of Infectious Diseases

Our ability to predict the effects of climate change on the spread of infectious diseases is in its infancy. Numerous, and in some cases conflicting, predictions have been developed, principally based on models of biological processes or mapping of current and historical disease statistics. Current debates on whether climate change, relative to socioeconomic determinants, will be a major influence on human disease distributions are useful to help identify research needs but are probably artificially polarized. We have at least identified many of the critical geophysical constraints, transport opportunities, biotic requirements for some disease systems, and some of the socioeconomic factors that govern the process of migration and establishment of parasites and pathogens. Furthermore, we are beginning to develop a mechanistic understanding of many of these variables at specific sites. Better predictive understanding will emerge in the coming years from analyses regarding how these variables interact with each other

Acquired Type III Secretion System Determines Environmental Fitness of Epidemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus in the Interaction with Bacterivorous Protists

Genome analyses of marine microbial communities have revealed the widespread occurrence of genomic islands (GIs), many of which encode for protein secretion machineries described in the context of bacteria-eukaryote interactions. Yet experimental support for the specific roles of such GIs in aquatic community interactions remains scarce. Here, we test for the contribution of type III secretion systems (T3SS) to the environmental fitness of epidemic Vibrio parahaemolyticus. Comparisons of V. parahaemolyticus wild types and T3SS-defective mutants demonstrate that the T3SS encoded on genome island VPaI-7 (T3SS-2) promotes survival of V. parahaemolyticus in the interaction with diverse protist taxa. Enhanced persistence was found to be due to T3SS-2 mediated cytotoxicity and facultative parasitism of V. parahaemolyticus on coexisting protists. Growth in the presence of bacterivorous protists and the T3SS-2 genotype showed a strong correlation across environmental and clinical isolates of V. parahaemolyticus. Short-term microcosm experiments provide evidence that protistan hosts facilitate the invasion of T3SS-2 positive V. parahaemolyticus into a coastal plankton community, and that water temperature and productivity further promote enhanced survival of T3SS-2 positive V. parahaemolyticus. This study is the first to describe the fitness advantage of GI-encoded functions in a microbial food web, which may provide a mechanistic explanation for the global spread and the seasonal dynamics of V. parahaemolyticus pathotypes, including the pandemic serotype cluster O3:K6, in aquatic environments